Odds movement · Thursday, October 8
Dropping Odds
The markets whose price has moved the most since the opening odds. The list compares the opening odds with the current odds, refreshed every hour; once the match kicks off the odds freeze and become the closing odds.
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How often did dropping odds land in the archive?
All settled matches that have both opening and closing odds. “Realised” is the hit rate and “Market expectation” is the probability implied by the closing odds (bookmaker margin included). When the two are close, the drop only reflects the new price; a market whose odds dropped is not profitable by itself. Buckets with a sample below 100 show no percentage.
| Market | Dropped 10%+ | Dropped 5–10% | ±5% (flat) | Rose 5%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result: Home | 44.3% expected 53.3% · n=12,302 | 48.4% expected 57.0% · n=11,849 | 43.6% expected 52.7% · n=22,527 | 33.5% expected 40.6% · n=10,277 |
| Match Result: Draw | 24.5% expected 31.0% · n=7,280 | 27.3% expected 32.6% · n=18,074 | 25.0% expected 30.8% · n=28,084 | 18.1% expected 23.0% · n=4,836 |
| Match Result: Away | 32.5% expected 39.9% · n=14,936 | 34.7% expected 42.4% · n=10,667 | 31.5% expected 39.3% · n=19,543 | 24.4% expected 29.7% · n=12,451 |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% expected 66.9% · n=5,428 | 54.6% expected 65.0% · n=13,559 | 50.3% expected 60.4% · n=27,092 | 42.9% expected 51.8% · n=4,281 |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% expected 63.7% · n=6,795 | 51.4% expected 63.1% · n=14,261 | 47.3% expected 58.7% · n=25,171 | 38.1% expected 47.7% · n=4,182 |
| Both Teams To Score: Yes | 54.6% expected 65.8% · n=4,665 | 56.3% expected 66.1% · n=15,421 | 52.8% expected 62.9% · n=32,749 | 46.0% expected 53.8% · n=3,668 |
| Both Teams To Score: No | 49.5% expected 61.6% · n=7,246 | 48.4% expected 60.2% · n=17,313 | 45.3% expected 56.8% · n=28,573 | 40.5% expected 49.6% · n=3,376 |
| HT Result: Home | 35.5% expected 43.4% · n=10,389 | 36.9% expected 44.1% · n=12,368 | 33.6% expected 40.6% · n=22,722 | 26.4% expected 32.8% · n=7,885 |
| HT Result: Away | 28.1% expected 33.0% · n=12,004 | 27.9% expected 33.5% · n=11,383 | 25.0% expected 31.3% · n=20,549 | 20.4% expected 25.2% · n=9,398 |
What are dropping odds?
Dropping odds means that the opening price the bulletin first published for any market of a match (1X2 Home, Over 2.5, both teams to score and so on) falls before kick-off. As the odds fall, the probability the market gives that outcome rises. For example, if 1X2 Home odds move from 2.10 to 1.85, the drop is about 11.9%. This page compares the opening odds with the current odds read every hour.
Source/Method: Methodology
Why do odds drop?
Odds are updated with information that emerges before the match and with the balance of bets. Team and injury news, rotation, a difference in motivation or heavy betting on one outcome can push that outcome's odds down. In low-volume leagues small stakes can also move the price. This page does not show why the odds dropped; the movement only shows that the price changed.
Source/Method: Methodology
What is the difference between opening and current odds?
The opening odds are the first price the bulletin publishes for a market. The current odds are the latest price, read every hour until kick-off; when the match starts they freeze and become the closing odds. The change on this page is calculated as (current − opening) ÷ opening × 100. The bigger the difference, the more the market's view of that outcome has changed.
Source/Method: Methodology
Does a drop in odds mean a certain result?
No. Dropping odds do not guarantee the result; they only show that the market gives that outcome a higher probability. In the archive, across 12,302 matches where the Match Result: Home odds dropped by more than 10%, Match Result: Home landed 44.3% of the time; the probability implied by the closing odds was 53.3%. When the two numbers are close, the drop only reflects the new price. Use the movement as the start of your research, not as a decision on its own.
Source/Method: Methodology
How to read dropping odds
The iddaa bulletin publishes the first price for a match as the opening odds. Between then and kick-off, team news, injuries and betting volume move the price. When a market's odds drop, the market is giving that outcome a higher probability; when they rise, the opposite.
For every match this page compares the opening odds with the current odds fetched every hour and shows the difference as a percentage. Once the match starts the odds freeze; the value at that moment is the match's closing odds. The “Yesterday” view also shows the match result and whether the market landed, alongside the closing odds.
Keep two things in mind when reading odds movements. First, a sharp drop does not always mean new information; small stakes can move the price in low-volume leagues. Second, a dropping price does not mean the match will end that way: in the archive table you can see that the realised rate and the market expectation are usually close. Use a movement as the start of your research, not as a decision on its own.
For a deeper look, use Closing Odds Analysis, Opening Odds Analysis and the market-level archive pages (for example 1X2 Home odds analysis).
This page is for information only; it does not take bets, does not refer you to bookmakers and guarantees no winnings. Gambling is restricted to adults aged 18 and over.
Frequently asked questions
How often are the odds on this page updated?
Current odds are fetched automatically every hour. The 'Last update' time at the top of the page is the time of the latest successful run. Once a match starts, the odds freeze and that value is the match's closing odds.
Why are some matches missing from the list?
A match needs both opening and current odds to appear in the list. Opening odds are loaded daily; in addition, moves larger than 60% are hidden because they are usually data-matching errors.
What is the difference between Dropping Odds and the Odds Radar?
This page lists the total difference between the opening and current odds of every market. The Odds Radar tracks the same movements by time window and ranks the ones worth a closer look with a Radar Score. The Radar Score is not a probability of winning; it shows how notable the movement is.
Where can I see how yesterday's dropping odds ended?
The 'Yesterday (with results)' filter shows yesterday's closing odds, the match score and whether the market landed on the same row. For a longer-term table, see the archive section at the bottom of the page.