1X2 (Match Result) · Opening odds
Match Result: Home Odds Analysis
The match result market predicts the result at the end of 90 minutes; extra time and penalties do not count. In our archive of 113,828 settled matches, Match Result: Home landed 43% of the time (48,966 matches).
Match result odds are shaped by the strength gap between the two teams and home advantage. The wider the gap, the lower the favourite's odds.
113,828
Settled matches
sample
43%
Hit rate
48,966 matches
2.02
Median opening odds
found in the data
2024
Archive range
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Hit rate by opening odds
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their opening odds fell in that band. The sample next to each percentage shows how many matches it was calculated from — no percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 50 matches.
| Opening odds | Settled matches | Match Result: Home landed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 8,031 | 5,992 | 74.6% |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 11,328 | 7,196 | 63.5% |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 17,139 | 9,125 | 53.2% |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 18,391 | 8,585 | 46.7% |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 26,655 | 10,195 | 38.2% |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 19,574 | 5,751 | 29.4% |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 7,667 | 1,584 | 20.7% |
| 5.00 and above | 5,043 | 538 | 10.7% |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how often this outcome happened in the past while the opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- Only the opening odds are used; closing odds are not part of this page. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored — when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- Of the 117,206 matches with odds, an outcome could be calculated for 113,828; the rest are matches whose score has not arrived yet and they are not counted in the denominator.
Look for these odds in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches for those whose Match Result: Home opening odds fall within a given range, use the analysis tool.
Open the Opening Odds Analysis toolFrequently asked questions
What does Match Result: Home mean?
The match result market predicts the result at the end of 90 minutes; extra time and penalties do not count.
How often has Match Result: Home landed in the past?
In the 113,828 settled matches in our archive, Match Result: Home landed 48,966 times — that is 43%. This is not a prediction; it is a count of past matches.
How well do opening odds anticipate the Match Result: Home outcome?
With opening odds between 1.00 and 1.30, Match Result: Home landed 74.6% of the time (8,031 matches); when the odds were 5.00 or higher, this fell to 10.7% (5,043 matches). In other words, lower odds point to an outcome that happens more often.
What data are the figures on this page based on?
On the opening odds and actual scores of matches played between 2024-01-01 and 2026-10-09. Outcomes are not stored; they are recalculated from the score each time, so if a score is corrected the statistics are corrected too.
What do Match Result: Home odds say about other outcomes?
The table above counts the Match Result: Home outcome itself. The pages below answer a different question: how matches ended in other markets while the Match Result: Home opening odds were in a given band — each one across the entire archive.