Skip to content
OranAnalizTV

Historical test

Spor Toto Backtest

Every strategy was tested on official Spor Toto weeks as if it had been played with the data available at coupon close: how many columns got 12, 13, 14 and 15 right, what it cost and what it returned with the official prizes.

  1. 1

    Data at close

    opening odds + form

  2. 2

    Columns are played

    scored against the official result

  3. 3

    Weighed by prizes

    return ÷ cost

Before you read: the return is calculated with the official prize per winner and is an optimistic upper bound; had our columns entered the pool, the amount per winner would have been lower. Probabilities were produced with today's model calibration. Past results do not indicate future winnings.

Weeks evaluated (total): 93 · column price as of each week's own date; 30 weeks with an unknown price are excluded from the return · measured Oct 5, 2026, 10:30

All weeks summary

Weeks tested

93

All weeks

Strategies tested

22

4 groups

Covered their cost

3 / 22

return of 100% or more

Highest return

130.2%

Analysis Column 3 — Differentiated

All weeks

Return ranking

Each bar is return ÷ cost. The vertical line marks 100%: left of it is a loss, right of it is above cost.

100% and abovebelow 100%break-even
  1. 1Analysis Column 3 — DifferentiatedAnalysis column130.2%
  2. 25/6/4 · 12 guaranteeGuarantee level127.3%
  3. 3Analysis Column 2 — Balancedold111.1%
  4. 4Analysis Column 2 — BalancedAnalysis column99.8%
  5. 5Budget optimisation · 500 columnsBudget87.1%
  6. 66/6/3 · 14 guaranteeGuarantee level60.5%
  7. 78 single / 5 double / 2 full coverClassic54.7%
  8. 8Analysis Column 3 — Differentiatedold53.8%
  9. 97/5/3 · 13 guaranteeold49.5%
  10. 107 single / 5 double / 3 full coverold49.1%
  11. 11Analysis Column 1 — High Confidenceold49.1%
  12. 1210 single / 4 double / 1 full coverClassic48.5%
  13. 136 single / 6 double / 3 full coverClassic45.6%
  14. 149 single / 5 double / 1 full coverClassic45.1%
  15. 15Budget optimisation · 100 columnsBudget44.8%
  16. 1611 single / 3 double / 1 full coverClassic43.1%
  17. 17Analysis Column 1 — High ConfidenceAnalysis column39.8%
  18. 187/5/3 · 14 guaranteeold34%
  19. 197/5/3 · 12 guaranteeold20.9%
  20. 205/6/4 · 13 guaranteeGuarantee level20.9%
  21. 2115 single / 0 double / 0 full coverClassic15.8%
  22. 226/6/3 · 13 guaranteeGuarantee level12.5%

Scale: the longest bar is 130.2%. Prizes are paid per column; a single week with a high prize can lift the ratio on its own — the cards below show in how many weeks each strategy hit.

The site's 3 analysis columns

The three system columns published on the site every week, applied to past weeks. The old fixed-distribution version stands alongside for comparison.

Analysis column

Analysis Column 1 — High Confidence

The site's 3 published system columns applied to past weeks: the single/double/full-cover split comes from the model probabilities and the budget each week (default full-system cap); full system.

Return

39.8%

93 weeks
800 columns/week

Cost₺506,520
Winnings₺201,417
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

52

13+

27

14+

10

15

1

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 1,036 · 202 · 22 · 1

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Analysis column

Analysis Column 2 — Balanced

The site's 3 published system columns applied to past weeks: the single/double/full-cover split comes from the model probabilities and the budget each week (default full-system cap); full system.

Return

99.8%

93 weeks
800 columns/week

Cost₺506,520
Winnings₺505,490
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

53

13+

28

14+

11

15

3

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 1,197 · 282 · 42 · 3

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Analysis column

Analysis Column 3 — Differentiated

The site's 3 published system columns applied to past weeks: the single/double/full-cover split comes from the model probabilities and the budget each week (default full-system cap); full system.

Return

130.2%

93 weeks
800 columns/week

Cost₺506,520
Winnings₺659,443
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

32

13+

17

14+

6

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 575 · 101 · 8 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Analysis columnold · comparison

Analysis Column 1 — High Confidence

The system columns before Phase 2: a fixed 7 single / 5 double / 3 full-cover distribution, full system. For comparison only.

Return

49.1%

93 weeks
864 columns/week

Cost₺544,320
Winnings₺267,176
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

55

13+

30

14+

5

15

1

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 961 · 170 · 18 · 1

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Analysis columnold · comparison

Analysis Column 2 — Balanced

The system columns before Phase 2: a fixed 7 single / 5 double / 3 full-cover distribution, full system. For comparison only.

Return

111.1%

93 weeks
864 columns/week

Cost₺544,320
Winnings₺605,011
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

54

13+

28

14+

10

15

4

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 1,317 · 326 · 52 · 4

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Analysis columnold · comparison

Analysis Column 3 — Differentiated

The system columns before Phase 2: a fixed 7 single / 5 double / 3 full-cover distribution, full system. For comparison only.

Return

53.8%

93 weeks
864 columns/week

Cost₺544,320
Winnings₺293,037
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

21

13+

10

14+

2

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 324 · 53 · 4 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.

Classic systems (full system)

The full system of a single / double / full-cover distribution: every column inside the selection is played.

Classicold · comparison

7 single / 5 double / 3 full cover

Return

49.1%

93 weeks
864 columns/week

Cost₺544,320
Winnings₺267,176
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

55

13+

30

14+

5

15

1

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 961 · 170 · 18 · 1

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Classic

6 single / 6 double / 3 full cover

Return

45.6%

93 weeks
1,728 columns/week

Cost₺1,088,640
Winnings₺496,058
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

61

13+

37

14+

5

15

1

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 1,341 · 207 · 19 · 1

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Classic

8 single / 5 double / 2 full cover

Return

54.7%

93 weeks
288 columns/week

Cost₺181,440
Winnings₺99,255
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

40

13+

17

14+

5

15

1

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 491 · 114 · 16 · 1

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Classic

9 single / 5 double / 1 full cover

Return

45.1%

93 weeks
96 columns/week

Cost₺60,480
Winnings₺27,254
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

29

13+

11

14+

1

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 165 · 29 · 2 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Classic

10 single / 4 double / 1 full cover

Return

48.5%

93 weeks
48 columns/week

Cost₺30,240
Winnings₺14,662
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

21

13+

6

14+

1

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 82 · 17 · 2 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Classic

11 single / 3 double / 1 full cover

Return

43.1%

93 weeks
24 columns/week

Cost₺15,120
Winnings₺6,514
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

16

13+

3

14+

1

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 43 · 9 · 1 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Classic

15 single / 0 double / 0 full cover

Return

15.8%

93 weeks
1 columns/week

Cost₺630
Winnings₺99
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

3

13+

0

14+

0

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 3 · 0 · 0 · 0

  • Only 3 hit weeks: the ratio rests on a few weeks.
  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.

Guarantee-level systems (mathematical coverage)

The same distributions reduced with a covering set: fewer columns, a lower lower bound.

This guarantee does not guarantee match results. If your selections cover the actual results of the 15 matches, it is mathematically verified that at least one column of the generated set will get at least N matches right.

Guarantee levelold · comparison

7/5/3 · 14 guarantee

Return

34%

93 weeks
92 columns/week

Cost₺57,960
Winnings₺19,707
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

35

13+

8

14+

2

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 99 · 14 · 3 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Guarantee levelold · comparison

7/5/3 · 13 guarantee

Return

49.5%

93 weeks
23 columns/week

Cost₺14,490
Winnings₺7,171
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

22

13+

3

14+

1

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 30 · 4 · 1 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Guarantee levelold · comparison

7/5/3 · 12 guarantee

Return

20.9%

93 weeks
8 columns/week

Cost₺5,040
Winnings₺1,052
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

7

13+

2

14+

0

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 7 · 2 · 0 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Guarantee level

6/6/3 · 14 guarantee

Return

60.5%

93 weeks
171 columns/week

Cost₺107,730
Winnings₺65,130
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

46

13+

10

14+

2

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 134 · 19 · 2 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Guarantee level

6/6/3 · 13 guarantee

Return

12.5%

93 weeks
36 columns/week

Cost₺22,680
Winnings₺2,824
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

17

13+

4

14+

1

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 23 · 4 · 1 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Guarantee level

5/6/4 · 13 guarantee

Return

20.9%

93 weeks
72 columns/week

Cost₺45,360
Winnings₺9,467
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

32

13+

7

14+

0

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 55 · 7 · 0 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Guarantee level

5/6/4 · 12 guarantee

Return

127.3%

93 weeks
24 columns/week

Cost₺15,120
Winnings₺19,251
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

12

13+

4

14+

0

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 13 · 4 · 0 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.

Budget optimisation

The highest guarantee level that fits a fixed column budget; the rest of the budget is filled with the most likely columns.

Budget

Budget optimisation · 100 columns

Return

44.8%

93 weeks
92 columns/week

Cost₺57,630
Winnings₺25,815
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

29

13+

9

14+

3

15

0

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 165 · 37 · 4 · 0

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.
Budget

Budget optimisation · 500 columns

Return

87.1%

93 weeks
486 columns/week

Cost₺306,180
Winnings₺266,798
Best column's hit weeks/93

12+

48

13+

24

14+

8

15

1

Columns right (12·13·14·15): 700 · 146 · 18 · 1

  • Return calculated with prize data for 63/93 weeks.
  • 30 weeks with an unknown column price were excluded from the return.

How to read this table

12+ weeks
the number of weeks in which the best column got at least 12 right. On the bar, 12+, 13+, 14+ and 15 are nested on the same line from light to dark.
Columns with 12 · 13 · 14 · 15 right
the total number of columns that hit exactly that tier over the window; prizes are paid per column.
Return
return ÷ cost. If the return is below the cost the ratio is shown in red, meaning a loss. Weeks without prize data are not included.
k guarantee (e.g. “14 guarantee”)
if the selections cover the actual results of the 15 matches, at least one column gets at least k right. Every match outside the selections can lower this bound; it is not a guarantee of match results or winnings.
Numbers in strategy names
the single/double/full-cover counts (e.g. 7/5/3) are sample distributions being tested; they are not a Spor Toto rule.
Weeks not tested
weeks with missing probability data (no opening odds for at least 12 of the 15 matches) or with incomplete results are not tested.
20 weeks not tested
  • 2026/2027 · week 8 — settled matches 13/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 51 — opening odds 10/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 50 — opening odds 10/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 49 — opening odds 11/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 46 — opening odds 10/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 44 — opening odds 8/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 43 — opening odds 9/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 29 — opening odds 0/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 15 — opening odds 11/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 14 — opening odds 6/15
  • 2025/2026 · week 5 — opening odds 8/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 51 — opening odds 11/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 50 — opening odds 9/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 48 — opening odds 10/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 46 — opening odds 9/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 45 — opening odds 11/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 44 — opening odds 11/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 33 — opening odds 11/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 21 — opening odds 10/15
  • 2024/2025 · week 15 — opening odds 11/15

Use the formula tool to build columns from your own selections.

Spor Toto formulas →

18+ · Play responsibly