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Odds movement · Thursday, October 8

Dropping Odds

The markets whose price has moved the most since the opening odds. The list compares the opening odds with the current odds, refreshed every hour; once the match kicks off the odds freeze and become the closing odds.

Last update 01:15· hourly
Matches with both odds
22
Markets down 10%+
28
Markets up 5%+
25
Sharpest drop
−23.7%
Coquimbo Unido – CD Cobreloa Calama · HT Result: Home
SortChangeTimeMarket

How often did dropping odds land in the archive?

All settled matches that have both opening and closing odds. “Realised” is the hit rate and “Market expectation” is the probability implied by the closing odds (bookmaker margin included). When the two are close, the drop only reflects the new price; a market whose odds dropped is not profitable by itself. Buckets with a sample below 100 show no percentage.

MarketDropped 10%+Dropped 5–10%±5% (flat)Rose 5%+
Match Result: Home
44.3%
expected 53.3% · n=12,302
48.4%
expected 57.0% · n=11,849
43.6%
expected 52.7% · n=22,527
33.5%
expected 40.6% · n=10,277
Match Result: Draw
24.5%
expected 31.0% · n=7,280
27.3%
expected 32.6% · n=18,074
25.0%
expected 30.8% · n=28,084
18.1%
expected 23.0% · n=4,836
Match Result: Away
32.5%
expected 39.9% · n=14,936
34.7%
expected 42.4% · n=10,667
31.5%
expected 39.3% · n=19,543
24.4%
expected 29.7% · n=12,451
Over 2.5
56.8%
expected 66.9% · n=5,428
54.6%
expected 65.0% · n=13,559
50.3%
expected 60.4% · n=27,092
42.9%
expected 51.8% · n=4,281
Under 2.5
52.7%
expected 63.7% · n=6,795
51.4%
expected 63.1% · n=14,261
47.3%
expected 58.7% · n=25,171
38.1%
expected 47.7% · n=4,182
Both Teams To Score: Yes
54.6%
expected 65.8% · n=4,665
56.3%
expected 66.1% · n=15,421
52.8%
expected 62.9% · n=32,749
46.0%
expected 53.8% · n=3,668
Both Teams To Score: No
49.5%
expected 61.6% · n=7,246
48.4%
expected 60.2% · n=17,313
45.3%
expected 56.8% · n=28,573
40.5%
expected 49.6% · n=3,376
HT Result: Home
35.5%
expected 43.4% · n=10,389
36.9%
expected 44.1% · n=12,368
33.6%
expected 40.6% · n=22,722
26.4%
expected 32.8% · n=7,885
HT Result: Away
28.1%
expected 33.0% · n=12,004
27.9%
expected 33.5% · n=11,383
25.0%
expected 31.3% · n=20,549
20.4%
expected 25.2% · n=9,398

What are dropping odds?

Dropping odds means that the opening price the bulletin first published for any market of a match (1X2 Home, Over 2.5, both teams to score and so on) falls before kick-off. As the odds fall, the probability the market gives that outcome rises. For example, if 1X2 Home odds move from 2.10 to 1.85, the drop is about 11.9%. This page compares the opening odds with the current odds read every hour.

Source/Method: Methodology

Why do odds drop?

Odds are updated with information that emerges before the match and with the balance of bets. Team and injury news, rotation, a difference in motivation or heavy betting on one outcome can push that outcome's odds down. In low-volume leagues small stakes can also move the price. This page does not show why the odds dropped; the movement only shows that the price changed.

Source/Method: Methodology

What is the difference between opening and current odds?

The opening odds are the first price the bulletin publishes for a market. The current odds are the latest price, read every hour until kick-off; when the match starts they freeze and become the closing odds. The change on this page is calculated as (current − opening) ÷ opening × 100. The bigger the difference, the more the market's view of that outcome has changed.

Source/Method: Methodology

Does a drop in odds mean a certain result?

No. Dropping odds do not guarantee the result; they only show that the market gives that outcome a higher probability. In the archive, across 12,302 matches where the Match Result: Home odds dropped by more than 10%, Match Result: Home landed 44.3% of the time; the probability implied by the closing odds was 53.3%. When the two numbers are close, the drop only reflects the new price. Use the movement as the start of your research, not as a decision on its own.

Source/Method: Methodology

How to read dropping odds

The iddaa bulletin publishes the first price for a match as the opening odds. Between then and kick-off, team news, injuries and betting volume move the price. When a market's odds drop, the market is giving that outcome a higher probability; when they rise, the opposite.

For every match this page compares the opening odds with the current odds fetched every hour and shows the difference as a percentage. Once the match starts the odds freeze; the value at that moment is the match's closing odds. The “Yesterday” view also shows the match result and whether the market landed, alongside the closing odds.

Keep two things in mind when reading odds movements. First, a sharp drop does not always mean new information; small stakes can move the price in low-volume leagues. Second, a dropping price does not mean the match will end that way: in the archive table you can see that the realised rate and the market expectation are usually close. Use a movement as the start of your research, not as a decision on its own.

For a deeper look, use Closing Odds Analysis, Opening Odds Analysis and the market-level archive pages (for example 1X2 Home odds analysis).

This page is for information only; it does not take bets, does not refer you to bookmakers and guarantees no winnings. Gambling is restricted to adults aged 18 and over.

Frequently asked questions

How often are the odds on this page updated?

Current odds are fetched automatically every hour. The 'Last update' time at the top of the page is the time of the latest successful run. Once a match starts, the odds freeze and that value is the match's closing odds.

Why are some matches missing from the list?

A match needs both opening and current odds to appear in the list. Opening odds are loaded daily; in addition, moves larger than 60% are hidden because they are usually data-matching errors.

What is the difference between Dropping Odds and the Odds Radar?

This page lists the total difference between the opening and current odds of every market. The Odds Radar tracks the same movements by time window and ranks the ones worth a closer look with a Radar Score. The Radar Score is not a probability of winning; it shows how notable the movement is.

Where can I see how yesterday's dropping odds ended?

The 'Yesterday (with results)' filter shows yesterday's closing odds, the match score and whether the market landed on the same row. For a longer-term table, see the archive section at the bottom of the page.