1X2 (Match Result) odds · Over / Under 2.5 distribution
Over / Under 2.5 by Match Result: Draw Odds
In 114,965 settled matches with Match Result: Draw opening odds, the most common outcome was OVER — 51.7% (59,474 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 27.8% and 68.8%.
Match result odds are shaped by the strength gap between the two teams and home advantage. The wider the gap, the lower the favourite's odds.
114,965
Settled matches
sample
51.7%
Most common: OVER
59,474 matches
41 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
3.29
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 2.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 2.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Match Result: Draw opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
51.7%
59,474 matches
UNDER
48.3%
55,491 matches
Over / Under 2.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Match Result: Draw opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Match Result: Draw opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 0 | — | — |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 1 | — | — |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 0 | — | — |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 2 | — | — |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 686 | 27.8%(191) | 72.2%(495) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 74,899 | 47%(35,210) | 53%(39,689) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 32,682 | 59.6%(19,463) | 40.4%(13,219) |
| 5.00 and above | 6,695 | 68.8%(4,608) | 31.2%(2,087) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 2.5 in the past while the Match Result: Draw opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Match Result: Draw opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 2.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 2.5 be predicted from Match Result: Draw odds?
A trend is measurable across 114,965 matches in the archive: with Match Result: Draw opening odds in the 5.00+ range, OVER landed 68.8% of the time; with odds in the 2.00–2.50 range, this fell to 27.8%. The 41-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 2.5 mean?
The over/under 2.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 2.5. 3 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Match Result: Draw opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 2.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 118,362 matches with Match Result: Draw opening odds, the Over / Under 2.5 outcome could be calculated for 114,965. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.