Research · last updated Oct 7, 2026
Opening and Closing Odds: Distribution, Movement and Outcomes
1X2 odds (Home, Draw, Away) of the matches with a recorded result in the archive; range Jan 1, 2024 – Oct 7, 2026. The numbers are derived from the database and refreshed once a day.
Key findings
- The probabilities implied by opening 1X2 odds add up to 116.5% on average; at closing, 121.8%. The part of the total above full probability is the bookmaker's share (margin).
- In 56,685 matches with both opening and closing odds recorded, the 1X2 Home odds dropped in 66.4%, rose in 31.6% and stayed unchanged in 2.1% of cases.
- The most crowded band of opening 1X2 Home odds is 1.50–1.99 (31.3% of opening 1X2 Home odds).
- Among opening 1X2 Home bands with a sufficient sample, the number of bands where the observed frequency fell below the probability implied by the odds (margin included): 7 / 7.
The findings are a plain reading of the numbers in the tables; they do not explain any match's result and give no guidance for future matches.
Odds movement from opening to closing
Matches whose opening and closing odds are in the same match record. "Dropped": closing odds lower than opening; "Flat": equal; "Rose": higher. The figure in brackets is how often the outcome occurred in that group.
| Market | Matches | Dropped | Flat | Rose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Home | 56,685 | 66.4%(46.1%) | 2.1%(47.5%) | 31.6%(36.7%) |
| 1X2 Draw | 56,685 | 80.3%(26.5%) | 1.3%(21.4%) | 18.5%(21.6%) |
| 1X2 Away | 56,685 | 64.7%(33.6%) | 1.3%(39.1%) | 33.9%(26.7%) |
Distribution and outcomes by odds band
Share: what percentage of the odds in that phase fall in this band. Outcome: how often the outcome occurred in the matches in this band. Implied: the average 1/odds value of the odds in the band (margin included). No percentage is shown for cells with a sample under 30.
1X2 Home odds
| Band | Opening share | Opening outcome | Implied | Closing share | Closing outcome | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.49 | 17.1%(19,353) | 68.1% | 76.8% | 22.0%(22,635) | 66.6% | 78.0% |
| 1.50–1.99 | 31.3%(35,499) | 49.8% | 57.6% | 30.1%(30,944) | 48.6% | 57.7% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 23.5%(26,642) | 38.3% | 45.3% | 20.1%(20,713) | 37.0% | 45.3% |
| 2.50–2.99 | 11.4%(12,874) | 31.0% | 36.9% | 10.9%(11,173) | 29.8% | 36.9% |
| 3.00–3.99 | 9.2%(10,463) | 25.4% | 29.6% | 8.9%(9,207) | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| 4.00–5.99 | 5.0%(5,677) | 15.9% | 21.3% | 5.5%(5,624) | 16.0% | 21.3% |
| 6.00+ | 2.4%(2,749) | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.6%(2,632) | 8.5% | 13.2% |
Bands: 1.01–1.49 · 1.50–1.99 · 2.00–2.49 · 2.50–2.99 · 3.00–3.99 · 4.00–5.99 · 6.00+
1X2 Draw odds
| Band | Opening share | Opening outcome | Implied | Closing share | Closing outcome | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.49 | 0.0%(1) | — | — | 0.0%(0) | — | — |
| 1.50–1.99 | 0.0%(2) | — | — | 0.0%(22) | — | — |
| 2.00–2.49 | 0.6%(686) | 39.4% | 41.5% | 3.4%(3,536) | 36.7% | 42.0% |
| 2.50–2.99 | 19.9%(22,566) | 31.1% | 35.3% | 32.1%(33,063) | 30.1% | 35.9% |
| 3.00–3.99 | 64.8%(73,425) | 25.8% | 29.9% | 50.9%(52,421) | 23.9% | 30.0% |
| 4.00–5.99 | 13.1%(14,892) | 18.1% | 21.9% | 12.9%(13,291) | 16.2% | 21.9% |
| 6.00+ | 1.5%(1,685) | 11.2% | 15.2% | 0.6%(595) | 11.3% | 15.5% |
Bands: 1.01–1.49 · 1.50–1.99 · 2.00–2.49 · 2.50–2.99 · 3.00–3.99 · 4.00–5.99 · 6.00+
1X2 Away odds
| Band | Opening share | Opening outcome | Implied | Closing share | Closing outcome | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.49 | 5.4%(6,105) | 68.0% | 76.5% | 8.2%(8,460) | 66.5% | 77.6% |
| 1.50–1.99 | 12.8%(14,477) | 49.7% | 57.0% | 15.3%(15,730) | 48.1% | 57.1% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 17.4%(19,682) | 39.0% | 44.6% | 17.7%(18,181) | 37.2% | 44.8% |
| 2.50–2.99 | 17.4%(19,662) | 31.0% | 36.6% | 16.1%(16,557) | 29.4% | 36.6% |
| 3.00–3.99 | 22.4%(25,343) | 24.1% | 29.3% | 19.5%(20,079) | 22.4% | 29.3% |
| 4.00–5.99 | 16.4%(18,604) | 17.0% | 21.2% | 15.3%(15,791) | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| 6.00+ | 8.3%(9,384) | 9.1% | 12.6% | 7.9%(8,130) | 8.9% | 13.2% |
Bands: 1.01–1.49 · 1.50–1.99 · 2.00–2.49 · 2.50–2.99 · 3.00–3.99 · 4.00–5.99 · 6.00+
League differences
Approved league names; the 10 largest leagues with at least 300 matches with opening odds. Favourite: the side whose opening odds were lower (1X2 Home vs Away; ties not counted).
| League | Matches with opening odds | Opening margin | Closing margin | Opening favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| İngiltere · Non Lig Premier | 3,293 | 117.2% | 122.3% | 48.6%(3,246) |
| İspanya · Segunda Lig RFEF | 3,076 | 117.2% | 122.3% | 47.1%(3,048) |
| İngiltere · Ulusal Lig N/S | 2,733 | 117.3% | 122.4% | 49.3%(2,708) |
| Almanya · Bölgesel Lig | 2,509 | 117.3% | 122.6% | 49.2%(2,490) |
| İtalya · Serie C | 2,499 | 117.2% | 122.3% | 45.6%(2,488) |
| Arjantin · Birinci Ulusal Lig | 1,828 | 117.3% | 122.6% | 45.9%(1,821) |
| İspanya · Primer Lig RFEF | 1,803 | 117.2% | 122.3% | 44.2%(1,785) |
| İngiltere · Ulusal Lig | 1,468 | 117.2% | 122.4% | 49.9%(1,465) |
| İngiltere · 2. Lig | 1,464 | 117.1% | 122.3% | 46.4%(1,461) |
| İngiltere · 1. Lig | 1,455 | 117.1% | 122.3% | 48.8%(1,449) |
Method
Only matches with status "finished" and a recorded full-time score are counted; inconsistent records whose half-time score appears higher than the full-time score are excluded.
An odds set is used if all three of the 1X2 Home, Draw and Away odds are greater than 1. The opening and closing tables count the odds of their own phase; a match appears only once per phase.
The movement table consists of matches whose odds for both phases are in the same match record. The margin is the average of the sum 1/Home + 1/Draw + 1/Away.
Only names from the approved league dictionary are used in the league breakdown. Results are recalculated once a day.
Citation and use
Source: OranAnalizTV, iddaaorananalizi.com/en/veri/arastirmalar/acilis-kapanis-oranlari, accessed Oct 7, 2026.
This page publishes only summary statistics; match-level raw data is not shared. Terms of use: data usage terms. A past distribution does not determine the result of the next match; this page is not betting advice.