Over / Under odds · Half-Time Result distribution
Half-Time Result by Under 3.5 Odds
In 87,060 settled matches with Under 3.5 opening odds, the most common outcome was HT X — 40.2% (34,992 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 24% and 43.6%.
Because it is a high goal line, the over side opens at clearly high odds in most matches.
87,060
Settled matches
sample
40.2%
Most common: HT X
34,992 matches
19.6 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
1.27
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Half-Time Result — overall distribution
How the Half-Time Result outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Under 3.5 opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
HT 1
34.1%
29,654 matches
HT X
40.2%
34,992 matches
HT 2
25.7%
22,414 matches
Half-Time Result by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Under 3.5 opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Under 3.5 opening odds | Matches | HT 1 | HT X | HT 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 48,150 | 31.6%(15,228) | 43.6%(21,008) | 24.7%(11,914) |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 26,308 | 35.5%(9,351) | 37.9%(9,973) | 26.5%(6,984) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 9,537 | 38.7%(3,693) | 33.3%(3,177) | 28%(2,667) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 2,296 | 44%(1,011) | 28.5%(654) | 27.5%(631) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 674 | 48.2%(325) | 24%(162) | 27.7%(187) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 90 | — | — | — |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 5.00 and above | 3 | — | — | — |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Half-Time Result in the past while the Under 3.5 opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Under 3.5 opening odds fall within a given range and see their Half-Time Result distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Half-Time Result be predicted from Under 3.5 odds?
A trend is measurable across 87,060 matches in the archive: with Under 3.5 opening odds in the 1.00–1.30 range, HT X landed 43.6% of the time; with odds in the 2.00–2.50 range, this fell to 24%. The 19.6-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Half-Time Result mean?
The half-time result market only looks at the result of the first 45 minutes (plus stoppage time); the rest of the match does not count.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Under 3.5 opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Half-Time Result outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 89,238 matches with Under 3.5 opening odds, the Half-Time Result outcome could be calculated for 87,060. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.