Over / Under odds · Match Result distribution
Match Result by Under 3.5 Odds
In 87,110 settled matches with Under 3.5 opening odds, the most common outcome was 1 (Home) — 43.8% (38,125 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 41.3% and 58.8%.
Because it is a high goal line, the over side opens at clearly high odds in most matches.
87,110
Settled matches
sample
43.8%
Most common: 1 (Home)
38,125 matches
17.5 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
1.27
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Match Result — overall distribution
How the Match Result outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Under 3.5 opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
1 (Home)
43.8%
38,125 matches
X (Draw)
25%
21,740 matches
2 (Away)
31.3%
27,245 matches
Match Result by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Under 3.5 opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Under 3.5 opening odds | Matches | 1 (Home) | X (Draw) | 2 (Away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 48,167 | 41.3%(19,914) | 27.8%(13,390) | 30.9%(14,863) |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 26,323 | 45.3%(11,926) | 23%(6,043) | 31.7%(8,354) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 9,552 | 47.8%(4,569) | 20%(1,912) | 32.2%(3,071) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 2,299 | 55.1%(1,267) | 14%(323) | 30.8%(709) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 674 | 58.8%(396) | 10.1%(68) | 31.2%(210) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 90 | — | — | — |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 5.00 and above | 3 | — | — | — |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Match Result in the past while the Under 3.5 opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Under 3.5 opening odds fall within a given range and see their Match Result distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Match Result be predicted from Under 3.5 odds?
A trend is measurable across 87,110 matches in the archive: with Under 3.5 opening odds in the 2.00–2.50 range, 1 (Home) landed 58.8% of the time; with odds in the 1.00–1.30 range, this fell to 41.3%. The 17.5-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Match Result mean?
The match result market predicts the result at the end of 90 minutes; extra time and penalties do not count.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Under 3.5 opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Match Result outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 89,238 matches with Under 3.5 opening odds, the Match Result outcome could be calculated for 87,110. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.