Over / Under · Opening odds
Under 3.5 Odds Analysis
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over. In our archive of 87,111 settled matches, Under 3.5 landed 68.6% of the time (59,746 matches).
Because it is a high goal line, the over side opens at clearly high odds in most matches.
87,111
Settled matches
sample
68.6%
Hit rate
59,746 matches
1.27
Median opening odds
found in the data
2024
Archive range
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Hit rate by opening odds
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their opening odds fell in that band. The sample next to each percentage shows how many matches it was calculated from — no percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 50 matches.
| Opening odds | Settled matches | Under 3.5 landed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 48,167 | 36,231 | 75.2% |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 26,324 | 16,874 | 64.1% |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 9,552 | 5,248 | 54.9% |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 2,299 | 1,094 | 47.6% |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 674 | 270 | 40.1% |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 90 | 28 | 31.1% |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 2 | 0 | insufficient sample |
| 5.00 and above | 3 | 1 | insufficient sample |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how often this outcome happened in the past while the opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- Only the opening odds are used; closing odds are not part of this page. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored — when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- Of the 89,238 matches with odds, an outcome could be calculated for 87,111; the rest are matches whose score has not arrived yet and they are not counted in the denominator.
Look for these odds in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches for those whose Under 3.5 opening odds fall within a given range, use the analysis tool.
Open the Opening Odds Analysis toolFrequently asked questions
What does Under 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How often has Under 3.5 landed in the past?
In the 87,111 settled matches in our archive, Under 3.5 landed 59,746 times — that is 68.6%. This is not a prediction; it is a count of past matches.
How well do opening odds anticipate the Under 3.5 outcome?
With opening odds between 1.00 and 1.30, Under 3.5 landed 75.2% of the time (48,167 matches); when the odds were 2.50 or higher, this fell to 31.1% (90 matches). In other words, lower odds point to an outcome that happens more often.
What data are the figures on this page based on?
On the opening odds and actual scores of matches played between 2024-01-01 and 2026-10-09. Outcomes are not stored; they are recalculated from the score each time, so if a score is corrected the statistics are corrected too.
What do Under 3.5 odds say about other outcomes?
The table above counts the Under 3.5 outcome itself. The pages below answer a different question: how matches ended in other markets while the Under 3.5 opening odds were in a given band — each one across the entire archive.