Over / Under odds · Over / Under 2.5 distribution
Over / Under 2.5 by Over 3.5 Odds
In 87,988 settled matches with Over 3.5 opening odds, the most common outcome was OVER — 53.2% (46,784 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 31.1% and 80.7%.
Because it is a high goal line, the over side opens at clearly high odds in most matches.
87,988
Settled matches
sample
53.2%
Most common: OVER
46,784 matches
49.6 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
2.68
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 2.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 2.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Over 3.5 opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
53.2%
46,784 matches
UNDER
46.8%
41,204 matches
Over / Under 2.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Over 3.5 opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Over 3.5 opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 75 | — | — |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 628 | 80.7%(507) | 19.3%(121) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 3,583 | 72.1%(2,582) | 27.9%(1,001) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 7,506 | 66.6%(5,002) | 33.4%(2,504) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 22,901 | 59.4%(13,592) | 40.6%(9,309) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 37,125 | 50.1%(18,583) | 49.9%(18,542) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 15,274 | 40.4%(6,177) | 59.6%(9,097) |
| 5.00 and above | 896 | 31.1%(279) | 68.9%(617) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 2.5 in the past while the Over 3.5 opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Over 3.5 opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 2.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 2.5 be predicted from Over 3.5 odds?
A trend is measurable across 87,988 matches in the archive: with Over 3.5 opening odds in the 1.30–1.50 range, OVER landed 80.7% of the time; with odds in the 5.00+ range, this fell to 31.1%. The 49.6-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 2.5 mean?
The over/under 2.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 2.5. 3 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Over 3.5 opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 2.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 90,149 matches with Over 3.5 opening odds, the Over / Under 2.5 outcome could be calculated for 87,988. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.