Over / Under · Opening odds
Over 3.5 Odds Analysis
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over. In our archive of 87,987 settled matches, Over 3.5 landed 31.2% of the time (27,485 matches).
Because it is a high goal line, the over side opens at clearly high odds in most matches.
87,987
Settled matches
sample
31.2%
Hit rate
27,485 matches
2.68
Median opening odds
found in the data
2024
Archive range
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Hit rate by opening odds
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their opening odds fell in that band. The sample next to each percentage shows how many matches it was calculated from — no percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 50 matches.
| Opening odds | Settled matches | Over 3.5 landed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 75 | 49 | 65.3% |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 628 | 377 | 60% |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 3,583 | 1,886 | 52.6% |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 7,506 | 3,331 | 44.4% |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 22,900 | 8,459 | 36.9% |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 37,125 | 10,198 | 27.5% |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 15,274 | 3,069 | 20.1% |
| 5.00 and above | 896 | 116 | 12.9% |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how often this outcome happened in the past while the opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- Only the opening odds are used; closing odds are not part of this page. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored — when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- Of the 90,149 matches with odds, an outcome could be calculated for 87,987; the rest are matches whose score has not arrived yet and they are not counted in the denominator.
Look for these odds in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches for those whose Over 3.5 opening odds fall within a given range, use the analysis tool.
Open the Opening Odds Analysis toolFrequently asked questions
What does Over 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How often has Over 3.5 landed in the past?
In the 87,987 settled matches in our archive, Over 3.5 landed 27,485 times — that is 31.2%. This is not a prediction; it is a count of past matches.
How well do opening odds anticipate the Over 3.5 outcome?
With opening odds between 1.00 and 1.30, Over 3.5 landed 65.3% of the time (75 matches); when the odds were 5.00 or higher, this fell to 12.9% (896 matches). In other words, lower odds point to an outcome that happens more often.
What data are the figures on this page based on?
On the opening odds and actual scores of matches played between 2024-01-01 and 2026-10-09. Outcomes are not stored; they are recalculated from the score each time, so if a score is corrected the statistics are corrected too.
What do Over 3.5 odds say about other outcomes?
The table above counts the Over 3.5 outcome itself. The pages below answer a different question: how matches ended in other markets while the Over 3.5 opening odds were in a given band — each one across the entire archive.