Over / Under odds · Total Goals Range distribution
Total Goals Range by Over 3.5 Odds
In 87,988 settled matches with Over 3.5 opening odds, the most common outcome was 2-3 goals — 44.9% (39,472 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 32.8% and 46.9%.
Because it is a high goal line, the over side opens at clearly high odds in most matches.
87,988
Settled matches
sample
44.9%
Most common: 2-3 goals
39,472 matches
14.1 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
2.68
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Total Goals Range — overall distribution
How the Total Goals Range outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Over 3.5 opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
0-1 goals
23.9%
21,030 matches
2-3 goals
44.9%
39,472 matches
4-5 goals
24.3%
21,352 matches
6+ goals
7%
6,134 matches
Total Goals Range by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Over 3.5 opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Over 3.5 opening odds | Matches | 0-1 goals | 2-3 goals | 4-5 goals | 6+ goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 75 | — | — | — | — |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 628 | 7.2%(45) | 32.8%(206) | 34.4%(216) | 25.6%(161) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 3,583 | 11.6%(416) | 35.8%(1,281) | 34.9%(1,250) | 17.8%(636) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 7,506 | 14.9%(1,121) | 40.7%(3,054) | 31.8%(2,384) | 12.6%(947) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 22,901 | 19.3%(4,425) | 43.7%(10,016) | 28%(6,407) | 9%(2,053) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 37,125 | 25.6%(9,518) | 46.9%(17,409) | 22.4%(8,305) | 5.1%(1,893) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 15,274 | 33.6%(5,130) | 46.3%(7,075) | 17.5%(2,668) | 2.6%(401) |
| 5.00 and above | 896 | 41.1%(368) | 46%(412) | 11.2%(100) | 1.8%(16) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Total Goals Range in the past while the Over 3.5 opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Over 3.5 opening odds fall within a given range and see their Total Goals Range distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Total Goals Range be predicted from Over 3.5 odds?
A trend is measurable across 87,988 matches in the archive: with Over 3.5 opening odds in the 2.50–3.50 range, 2-3 goals landed 46.9% of the time; with odds in the 1.30–1.50 range, this fell to 32.8%. The 14.1-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Total Goals Range mean?
The total goals range market predicts which range the number of goals in the match falls into.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Over 3.5 opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Total Goals Range outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 90,149 matches with Over 3.5 opening odds, the Total Goals Range outcome could be calculated for 87,988. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.