Half Time odds · Over / Under 3.5 distribution
Over / Under 3.5 by HT Result: Draw Odds
In 105,357 settled matches with HT Result: Draw opening odds, the most common outcome was UNDER — 70.3% (74,050 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 37.1% and 87.1%.
Half-time odds are higher than full-time odds, because fewer goals are scored in a shorter period and the chance of a draw rises noticeably.
105,357
Settled matches
sample
70.3%
Most common: UNDER
74,050 matches
50 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
2.07
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 3.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 3.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with HT Result: Draw opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
29.7%
31,307 matches
UNDER
70.3%
74,050 matches
Over / Under 3.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their HT Result: Draw opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| HT Result: Draw opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 0 | — | — |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 0 | — | — |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 3,795 | 12.9%(489) | 87.1%(3,306) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 33,414 | 21.5%(7,173) | 78.5%(26,241) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 59,522 | 32.9%(19,568) | 67.1%(39,954) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 8,121 | 46.3%(3,761) | 53.7%(4,360) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 453 | 62.9%(285) | 37.1%(168) |
| 5.00 and above | 52 | — | — |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 3.5 in the past while the HT Result: Draw opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose HT Result: Draw opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 3.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 3.5 be predicted from HT Result: Draw odds?
A trend is measurable across 105,357 matches in the archive: with HT Result: Draw opening odds in the 1.50–1.75 range, UNDER landed 87.1% of the time; with odds in the 3.50–5.00 range, this fell to 37.1%. The 50-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with HT Result: Draw opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 3.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 108,229 matches with HT Result: Draw opening odds, the Over / Under 3.5 outcome could be calculated for 105,357. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.