Half Time odds · Over / Under 3.5 distribution
Over / Under 3.5 by HT Result: Home Odds
In 105,340 settled matches with HT Result: Home opening odds, the most common outcome was UNDER — 70.3% (74,042 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 42.4% and 74.1%.
Half-time odds are higher than full-time odds, because fewer goals are scored in a shorter period and the chance of a draw rises noticeably.
105,340
Settled matches
sample
70.3%
Most common: UNDER
74,042 matches
31.7 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
2.65
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 3.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 3.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with HT Result: Home opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
29.7%
31,298 matches
UNDER
70.3%
74,042 matches
Over / Under 3.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their HT Result: Home opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| HT Result: Home opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 587 | 57.6%(338) | 42.4%(249) |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 2,168 | 46.4%(1,005) | 53.6%(1,163) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 5,916 | 38.8%(2,297) | 61.2%(3,619) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 9,590 | 34.8%(3,336) | 65.2%(6,254) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 26,137 | 29.6%(7,740) | 70.4%(18,397) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 40,385 | 25.9%(10,476) | 74.1%(29,909) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 15,238 | 28.2%(4,292) | 71.8%(10,946) |
| 5.00 and above | 5,319 | 34.1%(1,814) | 65.9%(3,505) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 3.5 in the past while the HT Result: Home opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose HT Result: Home opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 3.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 3.5 be predicted from HT Result: Home odds?
A trend is measurable across 105,340 matches in the archive: with HT Result: Home opening odds in the 2.50–3.50 range, UNDER landed 74.1% of the time; with odds in the 1.00–1.30 range, this fell to 42.4%. The 31.7-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with HT Result: Home opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 3.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 108,213 matches with HT Result: Home opening odds, the Over / Under 3.5 outcome could be calculated for 105,340. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.