Half Time / Full Time odds · Over / Under 3.5 distribution
Over / Under 3.5 by HT/FT Home-Home Odds
In 42,309 settled matches with HT/FT Home-Home opening odds, the most common outcome was UNDER — 69.9% (29,556 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 39.6% and 73.4%.
Because it combines two conditions, it is among the highest-odds markets on the coupon; the sample is naturally narrower too.
42,309
Settled matches
sample
69.9%
Most common: UNDER
29,556 matches
33.8 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
3.25
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 3.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 3.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with HT/FT Home-Home opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
30.1%
12,753 matches
UNDER
69.9%
29,556 matches
Over / Under 3.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their HT/FT Home-Home opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| HT/FT Home-Home opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 202 | 60.4%(122) | 39.6%(80) |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 718 | 44.2%(317) | 55.8%(401) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 1,479 | 38.1%(564) | 61.9%(915) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 2,229 | 37.5%(836) | 62.5%(1,393) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 6,179 | 32.4%(2,001) | 67.6%(4,178) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 13,417 | 28.6%(3,831) | 71.4%(9,586) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 10,684 | 26.6%(2,839) | 73.4%(7,845) |
| 5.00 and above | 7,401 | 30.3%(2,243) | 69.7%(5,158) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 3.5 in the past while the HT/FT Home-Home opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose HT/FT Home-Home opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 3.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 3.5 be predicted from HT/FT Home-Home odds?
A trend is measurable across 42,309 matches in the archive: with HT/FT Home-Home opening odds in the 3.50–5.00 range, UNDER landed 73.4% of the time; with odds in the 1.00–1.30 range, this fell to 39.6%. The 33.8-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with HT/FT Home-Home opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 3.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 43,186 matches with HT/FT Home-Home opening odds, the Over / Under 3.5 outcome could be calculated for 42,309. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.