1X2 (Match Result) odds · HT Over / Under 1.5 distribution
HT Over / Under 1.5 by Match Result: Home Odds
In 113,758 settled matches with Match Result: Home opening odds, the most common outcome was UNDER — 65.6% (74,606 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 58% and 68.1%.
Match result odds are shaped by the strength gap between the two teams and home advantage. The wider the gap, the lower the favourite's odds.
113,758
Settled matches
sample
65.6%
Most common: UNDER
74,606 matches
10.1 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
2.02
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
HT Over / Under 1.5 — overall distribution
How the HT Over / Under 1.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Match Result: Home opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
34.4%
39,152 matches
UNDER
65.6%
74,606 matches
HT Over / Under 1.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Match Result: Home opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Match Result: Home opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 8,027 | 42%(3,372) | 58%(4,655) |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 11,322 | 37.6%(4,256) | 62.4%(7,066) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 17,131 | 34.7%(5,937) | 65.3%(11,194) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 18,380 | 32.4%(5,950) | 67.6%(12,430) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 26,638 | 31.9%(8,507) | 68.1%(18,131) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 19,557 | 32.9%(6,430) | 67.1%(13,127) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 7,662 | 34.7%(2,662) | 65.3%(5,000) |
| 5.00 and above | 5,041 | 40.4%(2,038) | 59.6%(3,003) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of HT Over / Under 1.5 in the past while the Match Result: Home opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Match Result: Home opening odds fall within a given range and see their HT Over / Under 1.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can HT Over / Under 1.5 be predicted from Match Result: Home odds?
A trend is measurable across 113,758 matches in the archive: with Match Result: Home opening odds in the 2.00–2.50 range, UNDER landed 68.1% of the time; with odds in the 1.00–1.30 range, this fell to 58%. The 10.1-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does HT Over / Under 1.5 mean?
The first-half over/under 1.5 market only looks at the total goals scored in the first half. 2 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Match Result: Home opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the HT Over / Under 1.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 117,206 matches with Match Result: Home opening odds, the HT Over / Under 1.5 outcome could be calculated for 113,758. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.