1X2 (Match Result) odds · Over / Under 3.5 distribution
Over / Under 3.5 by Match Result: Home Odds
In 113,830 settled matches with Match Result: Home opening odds, the most common outcome was UNDER — 70.2% (79,897 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 60.6% and 73.7%.
Match result odds are shaped by the strength gap between the two teams and home advantage. The wider the gap, the lower the favourite's odds.
113,830
Settled matches
sample
70.2%
Most common: UNDER
79,897 matches
13.1 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
2.02
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 3.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 3.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Match Result: Home opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
29.8%
33,933 matches
UNDER
70.2%
79,897 matches
Over / Under 3.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Match Result: Home opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Match Result: Home opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 8,032 | 39.4%(3,168) | 60.6%(4,864) |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 11,328 | 34.4%(3,896) | 65.6%(7,432) |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 17,139 | 29.8%(5,101) | 70.2%(12,038) |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 18,391 | 27.5%(5,066) | 72.5%(13,325) |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 26,656 | 26.3%(7,020) | 73.7%(19,636) |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 19,574 | 27.7%(5,414) | 72.3%(14,160) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 7,667 | 31.1%(2,387) | 68.9%(5,280) |
| 5.00 and above | 5,043 | 37.3%(1,881) | 62.7%(3,162) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 3.5 in the past while the Match Result: Home opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Match Result: Home opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 3.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 3.5 be predicted from Match Result: Home odds?
A trend is measurable across 113,830 matches in the archive: with Match Result: Home opening odds in the 2.00–2.50 range, UNDER landed 73.7% of the time; with odds in the 1.00–1.30 range, this fell to 60.6%. The 13.1-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Match Result: Home opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 3.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 117,206 matches with Match Result: Home opening odds, the Over / Under 3.5 outcome could be calculated for 113,830. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.