Total Goals odds · Over / Under 3.5 distribution
Over / Under 3.5 by Total Goals 6+ Odds
In 72,951 settled matches with Total Goals 6+ opening odds, the most common outcome was UNDER — 70.4% (51,366 matches). Depending on the odds band, this rate ranges between 38.6% and 71%.
Range markets are narrower than over/under markets, so their odds also open higher.
72,951
Settled matches
sample
70.4%
Most common: UNDER
51,366 matches
32.4 pts
Spread between bands
highest − lowest
13.75
Median opening odds
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Over / Under 3.5 — overall distribution
How the Over / Under 3.5 outcome was distributed across all settled matches with Total Goals 6+ opening odds. This is the baseline distribution independent of the odds band; the band rates in the next table should be compared against it.
OVER
29.6%
21,585 matches
UNDER
70.4%
51,366 matches
Over / Under 3.5 by opening odds band
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their Total Goals 6+ opening odds fell in that band. No percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 100 matches.
| Total Goals 6+ opening odds | Matches | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 2 | — | — |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 4 | — | — |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 10 | — | — |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 6 | — | — |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 34 | — | — |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 171 | 61.4%(105) | 38.6%(66) |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 1,172 | 56.7%(665) | 43.3%(507) |
| 5.00 and above | 71,552 | 29%(20,779) | 71%(50,773) |
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how matches ended in terms of Over / Under 3.5 in the past while the Total Goals 6+ opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- It doesn't establish causation: what is measured between odds and outcome is how often they occur together. The odds do not produce the outcome; they summarise the market's expectation for that match.
- Only the opening odds are used. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored; when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- A page is only generated for market–outcome pairs whose sample exceeds 500 matches; no page is opened for pairs below that.
Look for this relationship in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches whose Total Goals 6+ opening odds fall within a given range and see their Over / Under 3.5 distribution live, use the analysis tools.
Frequently asked questions
Can Over / Under 3.5 be predicted from Total Goals 6+ odds?
A trend is measurable across 72,951 matches in the archive: with Total Goals 6+ opening odds in the 5.00+ range, UNDER landed 71% of the time; with odds in the 2.50–3.50 range, this fell to 38.6%. The 32.4-point gap is a tendency, not a guarantee.
What does Over / Under 3.5 mean?
The over/under 3.5 market checks whether the total number of goals in the match stays below or goes above 3.5. 4 or more goals is over.
How is the distribution on this page calculated?
Matches with Total Goals 6+ opening odds are split into odds bands, then in each band the Over / Under 3.5 outcome is calculated from the actual score and counted. Outcomes are not stored but derived from the score; if a score is corrected, the statistics are corrected too.
How many matches is this measured on?
Of the 74,583 matches with Total Goals 6+ opening odds, the Over / Under 3.5 outcome could be calculated for 72,951. Matches whose score has not arrived yet are not counted in the denominator. Archive range: 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-09.
Does it also apply to closing odds?
No. This page uses OPENING odds only. Closing odds form close to kick-off and carry different information; for the closing side, see the Closing Odds Analysis page.