Total Goals · Opening odds
6 Goals Analysis: Total Goals 6+ Odds Analysis
The 6 goals analysis examines, across past matches, whether a total of 6 or more goals was scored (the Total Goals 6+ market) according to the opening odds.
The total goals range market predicts which range the number of goals in the match falls into. In our archive of 72,951 settled matches, Total Goals 6+ landed 6.1% of the time (4,469 matches).
Range markets are narrower than over/under markets, so their odds also open higher.
72,951
Settled matches
sample
6.1%
Hit rate
4,469 matches
13.75
Median opening odds
found in the data
2024
Archive range
2024-01-01 → 2026-10-09
Hit rate by opening odds
Each row counts how matches actually ended when their opening odds fell in that band. The sample next to each percentage shows how many matches it was calculated from — no percentage is shown for a band with fewer than 50 matches.
| Opening odds | Settled matches | Total Goals 6+ landed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 – 1.30 | 2 | 1 | insufficient sample |
| 1.30 – 1.50 | 4 | 2 | insufficient sample |
| 1.50 – 1.75 | 10 | 4 | insufficient sample |
| 1.75 – 2.00 | 6 | 4 | insufficient sample |
| 2.00 – 2.50 | 34 | 13 | insufficient sample |
| 2.50 – 3.50 | 171 | 51 | 29.8% |
| 3.50 – 5.00 | 1,172 | 220 | 18.8% |
| 5.00 and above | 71,552 | 4,174 | 5.8% |
6+ Goals Analysis: rate of 6 or more goals by league
Regardless of opening odds: in the leagues with the most matches, how many matches saw a total of 6 or more goals. The figures come from the same archive as the league statistics page and only include leagues with at least 100 completed matches.
| League | Matches | 6+ goals | Rate | Goals per match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England · Non League Premier | 3,613 | 292 | 8.1% | 2.94 |
| Spain · Segunda División RFEF | 3,550 | 126 | 3.5% | 2.36 |
| Germany · Regionalliga | 3,188 | 297 | 9.3% | 3.08 |
| England · National League North/South | 2,924 | 183 | 6.3% | 2.78 |
| World · Friendlies | 2,818 | 243 | 8.6% | 2.93 |
| Italy · Serie C | 2,771 | 83 | 3% | 2.35 |
| Spain · Primera División RFEF | 1,972 | 63 | 3.2% | 2.35 |
| Sweden · Division 2 | 1,957 | 245 | 12.5% | 3.37 |
| Argentina · Primera Nacional | 1,905 | 16 | 0.8% | 1.82 |
| England · National League | 1,528 | 105 | 6.9% | 2.84 |
| England · League Two | 1,472 | 69 | 4.7% | 2.59 |
| Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina | 1,470 | 24 | 1.6% | 2.06 |
| England · League One | 1,457 | 69 | 4.7% | 2.61 |
| USA · MLS | 1,453 | 153 | 10.5% | 3.11 |
| England · Championship | 1,448 | 62 | 4.3% | 2.59 |
| Norway · 3. Division | 1,426 | 395 | 27.7% | 4.36 |
| Spain · LaLiga 2 | 1,255 | 53 | 4.2% | 2.49 |
| Colombia · Primera A | 1,071 | 28 | 2.6% | 2.33 |
| Europe · UEFA Conference League | 1,062 | 65 | 6.1% | 2.75 |
| Brazil · Serie B | 1,059 | 25 | 2.4% | 2.25 |
Top 20 leagues by number of matches. For all leagues, see league statistics.
How often do 6+ goals happen?
Of the 72,951 settled matches in our archive, 4,469 ended with 6 or more goals; that makes 6.1%. The median opening odds of the Total Goals 6+ market in the data is 13.75. The gap between leagues is large: among the leagues with the most matches, the highest 6+ goal rate is in Norway · 3. Division (27.7%, 1,426 matches). The tables below show how this rate changes with the opening odds and by league, together with how many matches each percentage was calculated from. These figures are a count of past matches, not a prediction for any single match.
Source/Method: Methodology
What do opening odds say about 6+ goals?
6+ goals came more often as the opening odds dropped. Of the 171 matches where the Total Goals 6+ odds opened in the 2.50–3.50 band, 29.8% ended with 6+ goals; at odds of 5.00 and above the share was 5.8% (71,552 matches). No percentage is shown for bands with a small sample. Low odds only point to an outcome that was seen more often in the past; they are not a prediction about the match itself.
Source/Method: Methodology
What this number tells you — and what it doesn't
- It tells you: how often this outcome happened in the past while the opening odds sat inside a given band.
- It doesn't tell you: what will happen in the next match. It is a count of past matches, not a prediction, and it carries no guarantee of winnings.
- Only the opening odds are used; closing odds are not part of this page. For the closing side, see Closing Odds Analysis.
- Outcomes are derived from the score, not stored — when a score is corrected, the statistics correct themselves at the next update.
- Of the 74,583 matches with odds, an outcome could be calculated for 72,951; the rest are matches whose score has not arrived yet and they are not counted in the denominator.
Look for these odds in today's matches
The table above shows the past. To filter today's matches for those whose Total Goals 6+ opening odds fall within a given range, use the analysis tool.
Open the Opening Odds Analysis toolFrequently asked questions
What is the 6 goals analysis?
The 6 goals analysis is an archive count of how often the Total Goals 6+ market — 6 or more goals in a match — landed in the past, by opening odds. This page contains the odds band table and the 6+ goal rate by league.
What does Total Goals 6+ mean?
The total goals range market predicts which range the number of goals in the match falls into.
How often has Total Goals 6+ landed in the past?
In the 72,951 settled matches in our archive, Total Goals 6+ landed 4,469 times — that is 6.1%. This is not a prediction; it is a count of past matches.
How well do opening odds anticipate the Total Goals 6+ outcome?
With opening odds between 2.50 and 3.50, Total Goals 6+ landed 29.8% of the time (171 matches); when the odds were 5.00 or higher, this fell to 5.8% (71,552 matches). In other words, lower odds point to an outcome that happens more often.
What data are the figures on this page based on?
On the opening odds and actual scores of matches played between 2024-01-01 and 2026-10-09. Outcomes are not stored; they are recalculated from the score each time, so if a score is corrected the statistics are corrected too.
Are Total Goals 6+ and over 5.5 the same outcome?
In terms of outcome, yes: both land when at least 6 goals are scored in the match. The difference is the market type; Total Goals 6+ is a goal-range market (0-1, 2-3, 4-5, 6+), while over/under 5.5 is a two-way market. That is why the two markets may not open at exactly the same odds.
What should you watch for when looking at the 6+ goal rate?
Look at the sample size: if the number of matches next to a percentage is small, the result is open to chance, and the page shows no percentage for bands below 50 matches. Differences between leagues can be more telling than the overall average; before deciding on a single match, also check the teams' scoring averages.
6+ goals analysis: in which leagues are 6 or more goals more common?
Among the 20 leagues with the most matches, those with the highest rate of 6 or more goals are: 3. Division 27.7% (1,426 matches), Division 2 12.5% (1,957 matches), MLS 10.5% (1,453 matches). This is a count of the leagues' past matches; it is not a prediction for any single match.
What do Total Goals 6+ odds say about other outcomes?
The table above counts the Total Goals 6+ outcome itself. The pages below answer a different question: how matches ended in other markets while the Total Goals 6+ opening odds were in a given band — each one across the entire archive.